How to explain the global error rate?

Hi All:

 

Here is my situation:

I'd made an assembly analysis including 4 parts. The translational displacement magnitude of analysis is 7.07mm and the real displacement of physics is 7.7mm. And the global error rate is about 50 %. While I try to reduce error rate to 30%, the displacement will be 13.8mm.

How to select a best fit error rate to explain the real model?

The model is just like as below:

My environment is : CATIA V5-6 R2015, using GAS module to simulate.

 

Thanks for your help!