When Will Google Docs Gain Market Share from MS Office?

Gartner recently published a report where they predict “by 2015, Google will have a slim, but important, share of the [Microsoft] Office productivity market.” At first, I thought this was a pretty bold prediction and kind of dismissed it.  Then, I started to think of how I used technology in December of 2007, which is the same amount of time in the past that Gartner expects this prediction to come true in the future.

As 2007 drew to a close, I never would have expected that 4 years later my mobile phone calls would be interrupted by an alert telling me it is my turn to make a move in “Scrabble.”  I also would have been pretty excited if somebody told me I can walk down the street in an unfamiliar city and have my mobile phone recommend restaurants to me within walking distance – and make a dining reservation.  So, does technology evolve in ways that we do not fully expect?  It certainly does, and I can definitely see how this prediction can come true.  After all, if we are seeing companies pursue cloud-based solutions for their PLM data, why won’t more of them use a cloud-based solution for their business documentation? 

I think this prediction can have interesting ramifications for a PLM system.  The most obvious ramification is that important product-related documentation will be stored outside of the control of the PLM system.  In this scenario, will PLM vendors be able to manage the authentication process for the Google Docs system in order to avoid requiring the user to authenticate multiple times?  How will the user experience be affected if a user navigates a bill-of-material from one system, but accesses supporting documentation from another system?

More interesting to me though is the collaborative capabilities of Google Docs and its impact on PLM.  Will there be a way to control edits to a Google-managed document so it is done within the control of the PLM change process?  How will comments made within Google Docs be leveraged by PLM processes?  Will there be a way to combine the history log of a Google Doc with the history log maintained in the PLM system so a complete picture of document download and changes can be provided?

Looking even further out, could a system like Google Docs become the entry point for most enterprise users, and then more advanced product data is accessed as needed from the PLM system? This last scenario reminds me of the old battles between PLM systems and content management vendors like Documentum.  Basically, will the use model be “document-centric” or “part-centric”?  I thought this particular battle was already fought and won by the “part-centric” crowd, but who knows?  Often, disruptive technologies cause long-held biases to be disrupted as well.

What is your view on Google Docs?  Is your company evaluating how it can be used to augment or replace existing business processes?