System Level Model Based Risk Determination for Lunar Mission Design with MBSE and SysML

SP 2026-04-20

Lunar mission design is not only about the vehicle or the landing itself. It is also about understanding how one mission event can affect the entire lunar environment. This paper (by M.M. Wittal1and S.C. Butts NASA Gateway Deep Space Logistics Project, Kennedy Space Center, FL, 32899 USA, 2011) shows how MBSE and SysML can be used to model that broader system-level risk, especially the impact of lunar dust and debris on assets both on the surface and in orbit. What I like most is the practical angle: turning complex physics into a flexible systems engineering tool that mission designers can actually use to evaluate risk earlier and more consistently. A strong example of how model-based engineering helps connect analysis with real mission decisions.

The different categorization of various entities that may exist or occur on or near the Moon. These are all components of an integrated system that interact through dust, communication, and physical transfer of people and equipment.

The MBSE SysML representation of the induced lunar environment models physical and operational phenomenon. The model will be extended to include a chronological component for consideration of orbiters and mission operational timelines.

The SysML-based Risk model architecture.

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